Why the discussion on race benefits Sen. Obama

Many “pundits” have often cited the issue of race as one of the biggest detriments to Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential ambitions. But I respectfully disagree. In this article I hope to deconstruct the myth of the Bradley effect and lay out an argument for why Sen. Obama’s race benefits him.

1. The myth of the Bradley Effect - The Bradley Effect is a belief that white voters will claim to vote for the minority candidate but pull the lever for the white candidate. The name stems from former LA Mayor Tom Bradley who ran for Governor. Polls showed him with a slight lead, however he lost the election. Many pundits believe voters couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the African American candidate. The problem with this is, George Deukmejian’s (Deukmejian defeated Bradley) general election pollster claims that the internals showed the race too close to call. In fact, the media picked up on the supposed Bradley victory because the Mervin Field (the state’s top public pollster) predicted so. Not only does, research has shown that the Bradley Effect faded out some time in the mid-1990s.
2. Reverse Bradley Effect – Barack Obama has in fact over performed in most states rather than vice-versa leading many to believe there’s a reverse Bradley effect in works. There’s an episode in the acclaimed show Practice in which the Bobby Donnell (played by Dylan McDermott) claims a trial in a Suburbia is the best thing to happen to an African American. His rationale was that the white jury members would be swayed more by middle class guilt and move to declare the defendant not guilty. We might be seeing a similar effect in play.
3. High minority turnout - We’re seeing Barack Obama command record support from African Americans (Key to Obama’s victory in Southern states) and Hispanics (Important to the Democrat’s Western Strategy). Barack Obama started to take a lion’s share of the African American vote after it become clear that he was a viable candidate for President (African Americans had previously backed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by a 2-1 margin). Hispanics are supporting Sen. Obama despite Republicans putting up one of the most pro-amnesty advocates in either party. This could be attrituted to the fact that minorities increasingly see that anyone can become the President and are inspired by the historic nature of Sen. Obama’s campaign.

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